A coin, having probability p of landing heads and probability of q=(1-p) of landing on heads. Announcing the arrival of Valued Associate #679: Cesar Manara Planned maintenance scheduled April 17/18, 2019 at 00:00UTC (8:00pm US/Eastern)Flipping a special coin: probability of getting heads equals the proportion of heads in the flips so farBiased coin flipped until $r$ heads appearBiased coin probabilityCoin-flipping experiment: the expected number of flips that land on headsWhy are odds of a coin landing heads $50%$ after $'n'$ consecutive headsWhat is the probability of a biased coin flipping heads (probability of heads is $frac 35$) exactly $65$ times in $100$ trials?Flipping rigged coin, calculating most common number of flips between headsChernoff bound probability: value of $n$ so that with probability $.999$ at least half of the coin flips come out headsFlip a coin 6 times. Probability with past results and probability without past results are different?Probability density function of flipping until heads and tails
Why didn't this character "real die" when they blew their stack out in Altered Carbon?
List of Python versions
How to align text above triangle figure
How to deal with a team lead who never gives me credit?
Extract all GPU name, model and GPU ram
How does the particle を relate to the verb 行く in the structure「A を + B に行く」?
Should I discuss the type of campaign with my players?
English words in a non-english sci-fi novel
Why am I getting the error "non-boolean type specified in a context where a condition is expected" for this request?
What's the purpose of writing one's academic biography in the third person?
What LEGO pieces have "real-world" functionality?
porting install scripts : can rpm replace apt?
If a contract sometimes uses the wrong name, is it still valid?
Is it ethical to give a final exam after the professor has quit before teaching the remaining chapters of the course?
Fundamental Solution of the Pell Equation
What causes the vertical darker bands in my photo?
ListPlot join points by nearest neighbor rather than order
Are two submodules (where one is contained in the other) isomorphic if their quotientmodules are isomorphic?
The logistics of corpse disposal
List *all* the tuples!
How to react to hostile behavior from a senior developer?
Why are Kinder Surprise Eggs illegal in the USA?
Bete Noir -- no dairy
What does the word "veer" mean here?
A coin, having probability p of landing heads and probability of q=(1-p) of landing on heads.
Announcing the arrival of Valued Associate #679: Cesar Manara
Planned maintenance scheduled April 17/18, 2019 at 00:00UTC (8:00pm US/Eastern)Flipping a special coin: probability of getting heads equals the proportion of heads in the flips so farBiased coin flipped until $r$ heads appearBiased coin probabilityCoin-flipping experiment: the expected number of flips that land on headsWhy are odds of a coin landing heads $50%$ after $'n'$ consecutive headsWhat is the probability of a biased coin flipping heads (probability of heads is $frac 35$) exactly $65$ times in $100$ trials?Flipping rigged coin, calculating most common number of flips between headsChernoff bound probability: value of $n$ so that with probability $.999$ at least half of the coin flips come out headsFlip a coin 6 times. Probability with past results and probability without past results are different?Probability density function of flipping until heads and tails
$begingroup$
A coin, having probability p of landing heads and probability of q=(1-p) of landing on heads. It is continuously flipped until at least one head and one tail have been flipped.
This is not part of a homework assignment. I am studying for a final and don't understand the professors solutions.
a.) Find the expected number of flips needed.
Since this is clearly geometric, I would think the solution would be:
E(N)=$Sigma_i=0^inftyip^n-1q+Sigma_i=0^niq^n-1p=frac1q+frac1p$.
However, I am completely wrong.
The answer is
E(N)=$p(1+frac1q)+q(1+frac1p)$
For example, consider we flip for heads first. Then we have:
E(N|H)=$p+pSigma_i=0^inftynp^n-1q$... I am not sure why this makes sense.
I am not entirely sure why we have an added 1 and a factored p,q. Could someone carefully explain why it makes sense that this is the right answer?
probability probability-theory probability-distributions expected-value
New contributor
$endgroup$
add a comment |
$begingroup$
A coin, having probability p of landing heads and probability of q=(1-p) of landing on heads. It is continuously flipped until at least one head and one tail have been flipped.
This is not part of a homework assignment. I am studying for a final and don't understand the professors solutions.
a.) Find the expected number of flips needed.
Since this is clearly geometric, I would think the solution would be:
E(N)=$Sigma_i=0^inftyip^n-1q+Sigma_i=0^niq^n-1p=frac1q+frac1p$.
However, I am completely wrong.
The answer is
E(N)=$p(1+frac1q)+q(1+frac1p)$
For example, consider we flip for heads first. Then we have:
E(N|H)=$p+pSigma_i=0^inftynp^n-1q$... I am not sure why this makes sense.
I am not entirely sure why we have an added 1 and a factored p,q. Could someone carefully explain why it makes sense that this is the right answer?
probability probability-theory probability-distributions expected-value
New contributor
$endgroup$
2
$begingroup$
It's all a question of the first toss. If it is $H$ then you just get one more than the expected time to get a $T$, if it is $T$ then you just get one more than the expected time to get $H$. Your method is incorrect because the expected number of tosses needed to get one of the two is $1$.
$endgroup$
– lulu
2 hours ago
$begingroup$
In both the title and first paragraph it appears there is $0$ chance of landing tails, so you will wait forever.
$endgroup$
– Ross Millikan
2 hours ago
$begingroup$
Note: your sums are hard to follow. What's $n$? The upper limit of the sums should be $infty$, the exponent of the probability ought to be a simple function of $i$. Done correctly, your method ought to work (though it's easier to do it the other way).
$endgroup$
– lulu
1 hour ago
add a comment |
$begingroup$
A coin, having probability p of landing heads and probability of q=(1-p) of landing on heads. It is continuously flipped until at least one head and one tail have been flipped.
This is not part of a homework assignment. I am studying for a final and don't understand the professors solutions.
a.) Find the expected number of flips needed.
Since this is clearly geometric, I would think the solution would be:
E(N)=$Sigma_i=0^inftyip^n-1q+Sigma_i=0^niq^n-1p=frac1q+frac1p$.
However, I am completely wrong.
The answer is
E(N)=$p(1+frac1q)+q(1+frac1p)$
For example, consider we flip for heads first. Then we have:
E(N|H)=$p+pSigma_i=0^inftynp^n-1q$... I am not sure why this makes sense.
I am not entirely sure why we have an added 1 and a factored p,q. Could someone carefully explain why it makes sense that this is the right answer?
probability probability-theory probability-distributions expected-value
New contributor
$endgroup$
A coin, having probability p of landing heads and probability of q=(1-p) of landing on heads. It is continuously flipped until at least one head and one tail have been flipped.
This is not part of a homework assignment. I am studying for a final and don't understand the professors solutions.
a.) Find the expected number of flips needed.
Since this is clearly geometric, I would think the solution would be:
E(N)=$Sigma_i=0^inftyip^n-1q+Sigma_i=0^niq^n-1p=frac1q+frac1p$.
However, I am completely wrong.
The answer is
E(N)=$p(1+frac1q)+q(1+frac1p)$
For example, consider we flip for heads first. Then we have:
E(N|H)=$p+pSigma_i=0^inftynp^n-1q$... I am not sure why this makes sense.
I am not entirely sure why we have an added 1 and a factored p,q. Could someone carefully explain why it makes sense that this is the right answer?
probability probability-theory probability-distributions expected-value
probability probability-theory probability-distributions expected-value
New contributor
New contributor
edited 2 hours ago
Mistah White
New contributor
asked 2 hours ago
Mistah WhiteMistah White
62
62
New contributor
New contributor
2
$begingroup$
It's all a question of the first toss. If it is $H$ then you just get one more than the expected time to get a $T$, if it is $T$ then you just get one more than the expected time to get $H$. Your method is incorrect because the expected number of tosses needed to get one of the two is $1$.
$endgroup$
– lulu
2 hours ago
$begingroup$
In both the title and first paragraph it appears there is $0$ chance of landing tails, so you will wait forever.
$endgroup$
– Ross Millikan
2 hours ago
$begingroup$
Note: your sums are hard to follow. What's $n$? The upper limit of the sums should be $infty$, the exponent of the probability ought to be a simple function of $i$. Done correctly, your method ought to work (though it's easier to do it the other way).
$endgroup$
– lulu
1 hour ago
add a comment |
2
$begingroup$
It's all a question of the first toss. If it is $H$ then you just get one more than the expected time to get a $T$, if it is $T$ then you just get one more than the expected time to get $H$. Your method is incorrect because the expected number of tosses needed to get one of the two is $1$.
$endgroup$
– lulu
2 hours ago
$begingroup$
In both the title and first paragraph it appears there is $0$ chance of landing tails, so you will wait forever.
$endgroup$
– Ross Millikan
2 hours ago
$begingroup$
Note: your sums are hard to follow. What's $n$? The upper limit of the sums should be $infty$, the exponent of the probability ought to be a simple function of $i$. Done correctly, your method ought to work (though it's easier to do it the other way).
$endgroup$
– lulu
1 hour ago
2
2
$begingroup$
It's all a question of the first toss. If it is $H$ then you just get one more than the expected time to get a $T$, if it is $T$ then you just get one more than the expected time to get $H$. Your method is incorrect because the expected number of tosses needed to get one of the two is $1$.
$endgroup$
– lulu
2 hours ago
$begingroup$
It's all a question of the first toss. If it is $H$ then you just get one more than the expected time to get a $T$, if it is $T$ then you just get one more than the expected time to get $H$. Your method is incorrect because the expected number of tosses needed to get one of the two is $1$.
$endgroup$
– lulu
2 hours ago
$begingroup$
In both the title and first paragraph it appears there is $0$ chance of landing tails, so you will wait forever.
$endgroup$
– Ross Millikan
2 hours ago
$begingroup$
In both the title and first paragraph it appears there is $0$ chance of landing tails, so you will wait forever.
$endgroup$
– Ross Millikan
2 hours ago
$begingroup$
Note: your sums are hard to follow. What's $n$? The upper limit of the sums should be $infty$, the exponent of the probability ought to be a simple function of $i$. Done correctly, your method ought to work (though it's easier to do it the other way).
$endgroup$
– lulu
1 hour ago
$begingroup$
Note: your sums are hard to follow. What's $n$? The upper limit of the sums should be $infty$, the exponent of the probability ought to be a simple function of $i$. Done correctly, your method ought to work (though it's easier to do it the other way).
$endgroup$
– lulu
1 hour ago
add a comment |
2 Answers
2
active
oldest
votes
$begingroup$
If you get a head with probability $p$ then the expected number of throws is $1+E(X)$ where $X$ is a geometric distribution requiring a tail to be thrown with probability $q$ so $1+E(X)=1+frac1q$. Similarly if you throw a tail with probability $q$ then the expected number of throws is $1+E(Y)$ where $Y$ is a geometric distribution requiring a head to be thrown with probability $p$ so $1+E(Y)=1+frac1p$. This means that the overall expected number of throws is
$$pleft(1+frac1qright)+qleft(1+frac1pright)$$
because there is a probability $p$ that the expected number of throws is given by $1+E(X)$ and probability $q$ that it is given by $1+E(Y)$.
$endgroup$
add a comment |
$begingroup$
Let $X$ be the time of the first head, and $Y$ the time of the first tail, and $W$ the first time when a head and a tail has been flipped.
You are right in assuming that $E[X]=frac1p$ and $E[Y]=frac1q$, But you are wrong in assuming that $W=X+Y$, that's simply not true, actually $W=max(X,Y)$.
A possible approach. Let $A$ be the indicator variable of the event: "first coin was a head" (hence $X=1$).
Then use $$E[W]=E[E[W | A ]] = P(A=1) E[W|A=1]+P(A=0) E[W|A=0]=\=p(E[Y]+1)+q(E[X]+1)$$
$endgroup$
add a comment |
Your Answer
StackExchange.ready(function()
var channelOptions =
tags: "".split(" "),
id: "69"
;
initTagRenderer("".split(" "), "".split(" "), channelOptions);
StackExchange.using("externalEditor", function()
// Have to fire editor after snippets, if snippets enabled
if (StackExchange.settings.snippets.snippetsEnabled)
StackExchange.using("snippets", function()
createEditor();
);
else
createEditor();
);
function createEditor()
StackExchange.prepareEditor(
heartbeatType: 'answer',
autoActivateHeartbeat: false,
convertImagesToLinks: true,
noModals: true,
showLowRepImageUploadWarning: true,
reputationToPostImages: 10,
bindNavPrevention: true,
postfix: "",
imageUploader:
brandingHtml: "Powered by u003ca class="icon-imgur-white" href="https://imgur.com/"u003eu003c/au003e",
contentPolicyHtml: "User contributions licensed under u003ca href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/"u003ecc by-sa 3.0 with attribution requiredu003c/au003e u003ca href="https://stackoverflow.com/legal/content-policy"u003e(content policy)u003c/au003e",
allowUrls: true
,
noCode: true, onDemand: true,
discardSelector: ".discard-answer"
,immediatelyShowMarkdownHelp:true
);
);
Mistah White is a new contributor. Be nice, and check out our Code of Conduct.
Sign up or log in
StackExchange.ready(function ()
StackExchange.helpers.onClickDraftSave('#login-link');
);
Sign up using Google
Sign up using Facebook
Sign up using Email and Password
Post as a guest
Required, but never shown
StackExchange.ready(
function ()
StackExchange.openid.initPostLogin('.new-post-login', 'https%3a%2f%2fmath.stackexchange.com%2fquestions%2f3190435%2fa-coin-having-probability-p-of-landing-heads-and-probability-of-q-1-p-of-land%23new-answer', 'question_page');
);
Post as a guest
Required, but never shown
2 Answers
2
active
oldest
votes
2 Answers
2
active
oldest
votes
active
oldest
votes
active
oldest
votes
$begingroup$
If you get a head with probability $p$ then the expected number of throws is $1+E(X)$ where $X$ is a geometric distribution requiring a tail to be thrown with probability $q$ so $1+E(X)=1+frac1q$. Similarly if you throw a tail with probability $q$ then the expected number of throws is $1+E(Y)$ where $Y$ is a geometric distribution requiring a head to be thrown with probability $p$ so $1+E(Y)=1+frac1p$. This means that the overall expected number of throws is
$$pleft(1+frac1qright)+qleft(1+frac1pright)$$
because there is a probability $p$ that the expected number of throws is given by $1+E(X)$ and probability $q$ that it is given by $1+E(Y)$.
$endgroup$
add a comment |
$begingroup$
If you get a head with probability $p$ then the expected number of throws is $1+E(X)$ where $X$ is a geometric distribution requiring a tail to be thrown with probability $q$ so $1+E(X)=1+frac1q$. Similarly if you throw a tail with probability $q$ then the expected number of throws is $1+E(Y)$ where $Y$ is a geometric distribution requiring a head to be thrown with probability $p$ so $1+E(Y)=1+frac1p$. This means that the overall expected number of throws is
$$pleft(1+frac1qright)+qleft(1+frac1pright)$$
because there is a probability $p$ that the expected number of throws is given by $1+E(X)$ and probability $q$ that it is given by $1+E(Y)$.
$endgroup$
add a comment |
$begingroup$
If you get a head with probability $p$ then the expected number of throws is $1+E(X)$ where $X$ is a geometric distribution requiring a tail to be thrown with probability $q$ so $1+E(X)=1+frac1q$. Similarly if you throw a tail with probability $q$ then the expected number of throws is $1+E(Y)$ where $Y$ is a geometric distribution requiring a head to be thrown with probability $p$ so $1+E(Y)=1+frac1p$. This means that the overall expected number of throws is
$$pleft(1+frac1qright)+qleft(1+frac1pright)$$
because there is a probability $p$ that the expected number of throws is given by $1+E(X)$ and probability $q$ that it is given by $1+E(Y)$.
$endgroup$
If you get a head with probability $p$ then the expected number of throws is $1+E(X)$ where $X$ is a geometric distribution requiring a tail to be thrown with probability $q$ so $1+E(X)=1+frac1q$. Similarly if you throw a tail with probability $q$ then the expected number of throws is $1+E(Y)$ where $Y$ is a geometric distribution requiring a head to be thrown with probability $p$ so $1+E(Y)=1+frac1p$. This means that the overall expected number of throws is
$$pleft(1+frac1qright)+qleft(1+frac1pright)$$
because there is a probability $p$ that the expected number of throws is given by $1+E(X)$ and probability $q$ that it is given by $1+E(Y)$.
edited 1 hour ago
answered 2 hours ago
Peter ForemanPeter Foreman
7,8931320
7,8931320
add a comment |
add a comment |
$begingroup$
Let $X$ be the time of the first head, and $Y$ the time of the first tail, and $W$ the first time when a head and a tail has been flipped.
You are right in assuming that $E[X]=frac1p$ and $E[Y]=frac1q$, But you are wrong in assuming that $W=X+Y$, that's simply not true, actually $W=max(X,Y)$.
A possible approach. Let $A$ be the indicator variable of the event: "first coin was a head" (hence $X=1$).
Then use $$E[W]=E[E[W | A ]] = P(A=1) E[W|A=1]+P(A=0) E[W|A=0]=\=p(E[Y]+1)+q(E[X]+1)$$
$endgroup$
add a comment |
$begingroup$
Let $X$ be the time of the first head, and $Y$ the time of the first tail, and $W$ the first time when a head and a tail has been flipped.
You are right in assuming that $E[X]=frac1p$ and $E[Y]=frac1q$, But you are wrong in assuming that $W=X+Y$, that's simply not true, actually $W=max(X,Y)$.
A possible approach. Let $A$ be the indicator variable of the event: "first coin was a head" (hence $X=1$).
Then use $$E[W]=E[E[W | A ]] = P(A=1) E[W|A=1]+P(A=0) E[W|A=0]=\=p(E[Y]+1)+q(E[X]+1)$$
$endgroup$
add a comment |
$begingroup$
Let $X$ be the time of the first head, and $Y$ the time of the first tail, and $W$ the first time when a head and a tail has been flipped.
You are right in assuming that $E[X]=frac1p$ and $E[Y]=frac1q$, But you are wrong in assuming that $W=X+Y$, that's simply not true, actually $W=max(X,Y)$.
A possible approach. Let $A$ be the indicator variable of the event: "first coin was a head" (hence $X=1$).
Then use $$E[W]=E[E[W | A ]] = P(A=1) E[W|A=1]+P(A=0) E[W|A=0]=\=p(E[Y]+1)+q(E[X]+1)$$
$endgroup$
Let $X$ be the time of the first head, and $Y$ the time of the first tail, and $W$ the first time when a head and a tail has been flipped.
You are right in assuming that $E[X]=frac1p$ and $E[Y]=frac1q$, But you are wrong in assuming that $W=X+Y$, that's simply not true, actually $W=max(X,Y)$.
A possible approach. Let $A$ be the indicator variable of the event: "first coin was a head" (hence $X=1$).
Then use $$E[W]=E[E[W | A ]] = P(A=1) E[W|A=1]+P(A=0) E[W|A=0]=\=p(E[Y]+1)+q(E[X]+1)$$
edited 2 hours ago
answered 2 hours ago
leonbloyleonbloy
42.5k647108
42.5k647108
add a comment |
add a comment |
Mistah White is a new contributor. Be nice, and check out our Code of Conduct.
Mistah White is a new contributor. Be nice, and check out our Code of Conduct.
Mistah White is a new contributor. Be nice, and check out our Code of Conduct.
Mistah White is a new contributor. Be nice, and check out our Code of Conduct.
Thanks for contributing an answer to Mathematics Stack Exchange!
- Please be sure to answer the question. Provide details and share your research!
But avoid …
- Asking for help, clarification, or responding to other answers.
- Making statements based on opinion; back them up with references or personal experience.
Use MathJax to format equations. MathJax reference.
To learn more, see our tips on writing great answers.
Sign up or log in
StackExchange.ready(function ()
StackExchange.helpers.onClickDraftSave('#login-link');
);
Sign up using Google
Sign up using Facebook
Sign up using Email and Password
Post as a guest
Required, but never shown
StackExchange.ready(
function ()
StackExchange.openid.initPostLogin('.new-post-login', 'https%3a%2f%2fmath.stackexchange.com%2fquestions%2f3190435%2fa-coin-having-probability-p-of-landing-heads-and-probability-of-q-1-p-of-land%23new-answer', 'question_page');
);
Post as a guest
Required, but never shown
Sign up or log in
StackExchange.ready(function ()
StackExchange.helpers.onClickDraftSave('#login-link');
);
Sign up using Google
Sign up using Facebook
Sign up using Email and Password
Post as a guest
Required, but never shown
Sign up or log in
StackExchange.ready(function ()
StackExchange.helpers.onClickDraftSave('#login-link');
);
Sign up using Google
Sign up using Facebook
Sign up using Email and Password
Post as a guest
Required, but never shown
Sign up or log in
StackExchange.ready(function ()
StackExchange.helpers.onClickDraftSave('#login-link');
);
Sign up using Google
Sign up using Facebook
Sign up using Email and Password
Sign up using Google
Sign up using Facebook
Sign up using Email and Password
Post as a guest
Required, but never shown
Required, but never shown
Required, but never shown
Required, but never shown
Required, but never shown
Required, but never shown
Required, but never shown
Required, but never shown
Required, but never shown
2
$begingroup$
It's all a question of the first toss. If it is $H$ then you just get one more than the expected time to get a $T$, if it is $T$ then you just get one more than the expected time to get $H$. Your method is incorrect because the expected number of tosses needed to get one of the two is $1$.
$endgroup$
– lulu
2 hours ago
$begingroup$
In both the title and first paragraph it appears there is $0$ chance of landing tails, so you will wait forever.
$endgroup$
– Ross Millikan
2 hours ago
$begingroup$
Note: your sums are hard to follow. What's $n$? The upper limit of the sums should be $infty$, the exponent of the probability ought to be a simple function of $i$. Done correctly, your method ought to work (though it's easier to do it the other way).
$endgroup$
– lulu
1 hour ago